Climate Phase Forecast
Updated: July 16th, 2010
La Niña develops as the Pacific Ocean continues a rapid transition.
 |
 |
Current East Pacific SST Analysis |
Current East Pacific SST Anomaly Analysis |
After a winter of moderate to strong El Niño conditions, ocean temperatures have cooled very quickly in the last 2-3 months. El Niño refers to a periodic (every 2-7 years) warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean along the equator from the coast of South America to the central Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in this region cooled to near normal in May and June, but then continued cooling and have now reached thresholds consistent with the La Niña phase (SST’s more that 0.5 C colder than normal averaged over the area). We now use the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to keep track of El Niño and La Niña, and the MEI has registered the greatest one and two month drops since records have been kept starting in 1950.
Because of the rapid cooling of sea surface temperatures, the abrupt drop in the MEI index, and the broad extent of colder than normal waters, the further development and continuation of La Niña through the remainder of 2010 is likely. Centers around the world who run El Niño/La Niña prediction models are in fairly good consensus in prediction a strengthening and long-lasting La Niña.
La Niña is known to bring a more active hurricane season to the Atlantic basin, so we anticipate a hurricane season with more storms than normal. La Niña also brings drier and warmer than normal climate patterns to the Southeast in Fall and Winter. For more information on how La Niña affects the climate of the Southeast, please reference our climate outlook and the Climate Risk Tool available on this website.
The SECC tracks the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean using the MEI index. For more information and current MEI values, see the following link:
Other El Niño/La Niña Forecasts
Below are links to El Niño/La Niña forecasts from other centers in the U.S. and worldwide. Caution: the SECC may not agree with their forecasts and/or classification criteria.