Drought Outlook - October 15, 2015 to January 31, 2016

The image above is supplied dynamically from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and is subject to change without notice to AgroClimate. Please visit http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/ for the most up to date image

"Latest Seasonal Assessment (NOAA CPC) - “The October Drought Outlook is based on initial conditions, the updated October precipitation and temperature outlooks, climatology, and the expected effects of Hurricane Joaquin in the East. Located about 200 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas on midday September 30, Joaquin is expected to meander westward or southwestward for the next couple of days before taking a turn to the north, with an increase in forward speed. Its eventual impact on the eastern U.S. will depend on how it interacts with a developing upper-level trough in the Southeast. Regardless of its track, heavy rain is expected along a frontal system at the beginning of October across parts of the East.

As far as the October Drought Outlook is concerned, improvement is expected in the East whether or not Joaquin makes landfall. Other short-term features, most notably and upper-level trough developing in the Southeast, should bring enough rain to promote improvement in any case. Joaquin is not likely to affect southern Florida at all, but moderate short-term rains and the potential for additional precipitation later in the month should continue the trend toward improvement that has been observed over the past several weeks. In fact, most of the central and eastern U.S. should see at least some drought improvement, save the small area in southern Wisconsin, where the October precipitation outlook shows enhanced chances for below-normal precipitation.

Even more broadly, the first half of the month is expected to be wetter than normal for a large part of the contiguous 48 states. Only parts of the Southwest and Southeast are excluded from the generally wet outlook, and late September rains should be enough to promote improvement in the Southeast even if the region misses out on the anticipated wet spell. For the month as a whole, odds favor wetter than normal weather from most of the Four Corners states southeastward through Texas and Louisiana."

Forecaster: Rich Tinker

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: October 31, 2015 at 8:30 AM EDT